FPL 2025/26 — Lessons Learned & Season Debrief

Club of 9 managers · GW31 standings · Reference document for 2026/27 season planning · Generated March 2026

Manager	OR (GW31)	Total Pts	Hit Cost	Transfers	Bench Waste	Chips H2 Left	Archetype
Ibsen	#1	2,061	0	31	380	WC2 TC2 BB2 FH2	Patient Accumulator
Trundlers	#2	2,050	0	29	297	WC2 TC2 BB2 FH2	Early Detonator
Crème	#3	2,040	0	30	245	FH1 FH2	Contrarian
mirinda	#4	2,037	4	30	261	WC2 TC2 BB2 FH2	Decisive Frontrunner
Bruno	#9,032	1,910	20	37	332	WC2 BB2 FH2	Active Hit-Taker
Howitts	#33,068	1,880	28	38	249	TC2 BB2 FH2	Reactive Churner
SlowBuild	#1.53M	1,718	32	37	249	BB2	Late Starter
Yamal 1#	#7.46M	1,473	72	47	184	WC2 TC2 BB2	Persistent Improver
Mbappe Salah	#12.45M	738	920	259	242	BB2	Unconstrained Collector

1. Universal Lessons — Patterns Across All 9 Managers

① Zero hit tolerance separates the top 4. The global top 4 in this club paid 0–4 pts in transfer penalties across 31 GWs. Every manager ranked #9,032 or lower paid 20+ pts. This is not a coincidence — it is the single most consistent statistical separator in the dataset. Each hit is a compound loss: 4 pts now, plus the opportunity cost of the free transfer that would have been better spent strategically later.

② GW6 Triple Captain is the consensus season-defining play. 7 of 9 managers used TC on GW6. The managers who did not (Crème — GW17, Yamal — GW13 worst GW of season) either found an equal or better moment (Crème) or paid a significant penalty (Yamal). For 2026/27: identify the GW6 captain candidate before the season opens and have a pre-commitment in place.

③ Bench Boost before GW11 outperforms late BB. Trundlers (GW1: 115 pts), Mirinda (GW9), Ibsen (GW10) all played BB during peak-squad H1 phases and scored the three highest BB returns in the club. Bruno and Howitts both played BB on GW18 — mid-H2, post-rebuild, with squads not yet loaded — and scored notably less. Rule: play BB when you have just run a Wildcard and your squad is at its most loaded, not when a GW looks good on paper.

④ Squad value compounds silently. All managers started at the same squad value. By GW31: Ibsen £108.6m, Trundlers £107.7m, Mirinda £107.3m. Bruno £104.9m, Howitts £104.9m. SlowBuild £103.0m. The difference is not volume of transfers — it is holding the right assets long enough for their price to rise. More transfers correlates with lower squad value growth in this dataset.

⑤ The 8-chip model must be understood from day 1. This season caused confusion because the chip reset at GW20 was not widely known. Every manager has 8 chips: WC1, TC1, BB1, FH1 (H1: GW1–19) and WC2, TC2, BB2, FH2 (H2: GW20+). Plan both halves before the season begins. H1 chips should ideally be used before GW13 to maximise H2 flexibility.

⑥ Free Hit belongs on blank GWs — not strong GWs. SlowBuild's FH2 on BGW31 (Arsenal, City, Crystal Palace, Wolves all blank) was the most strategically correct chip deployment of the lower four managers. FH is not for scoring big — it is for avoiding zeros. Using FH on a non-blank GW wastes its core advantage. Bruno's FH on GW12 did not align with a blank GW.

⑦ Missing GW1 creates an unrecoverable structural deficit. Both SlowBuild and Mbappe Salah missed GW1. Trundlers scored 115 pts that week with BB. A 100+ pt gap on day 1 means every subsequent GW must outperform the field just to stay level, not improve. For 2026/27: set a calendar reminder 72 hours before GW1 deadline.

⑧ Wildcard 1 in the first 4 GWs builds the season's foundation. Ibsen (GW2), mirinda (GW4), Bruno (GW3) all used WC1 early to correct pre-season selection errors and establish a structural squad. Trundlers used WC1 in GW16 (mid-H1) and still succeeded because the early BB covered for it. The lesson: do not hold WC1 past GW10 if the squad is clearly wrong — the cost of waiting compounds.

2. Per-Manager Debrief

Ibsen OR #1 — World Number 1

Patient Accumulator · 2,061 pts · 31 GWs

WC1
2

TC1
6

BB1
10

FH1
13

Hits: 0 pts

Transfers: 31

Bench waste: 380 pts

Best GW: GW10 — 105 pts (BB)

H2 chips: WC2 TC2 BB2 FH2

✓ WC1 in GW2 — Early structural correction before the squad could drift. Never had a below-average squad phase.

✓ TC on GW6 — Consensus captain play. Locked in early-season OR advantage.

✓ BB on GW10 — Post-WC squad at full load. 105 pts = highest single GW in club. Optimal BB timing template.

✓ FH on GW13 — Early blank protection, freed up H2 with all 4 H2 chips untouched.

✓ Zero hits — Surgical 1.0 transfers/GW average. Every transfer was a planned upgrade, never reactive.

✗ Bench waste: 380 pts — Highest in the club. Despite OR #1, lineup ordering cost points every week. Better auto-substitution planning could have improved OR further.

Headline takeaway for 2026/27: The H1 blitz (all 4 H1 chips deployed by GW13) is the template. It stores a full set of 4 H2 chips for the run-in. Next season: plan chip trigger conditions before GW1 and execute on schedule. Also fix bench ordering — the lineup priority order should be checked every GW.

The Honest Trundlers OR #2

Early Detonator · 2,050 pts · 31 GWs

BB1
1

TC1
6

WC1
16

FH1
19

Hits: 0 pts

Transfers: 29 (fewest in club)

Bench waste: 297 pts

Best GW: GW1 — 115 pts (BB)

H2 chips: WC2 TC2 BB2 FH2

✓ BB on GW1 — 115 pts on the first gameweek is the single best chip play in the club this season. Never dropped below OR top-15 all season. Set a buffer that was never surrendered.

✓ Zero hits — fewest transfers in club — 29 transfers across 31 GWs = 0.9 per GW. Every transfer was deliberate.

✓ TC on GW6 — Confirmed the template captain call alongside Ibsen and mirinda.

Headline takeaway for 2026/27: Pre-season preparation is the hidden lever. BB on GW1 requires identifying the GW1 captain option before the season opens and building a squad around it. Trundlers won the chip timing game before a ball was kicked. Research and squad construction in July/August has a measurable impact on the final standings.

Crème de la Crème OR #3

Contrarian Late Bloomer · 2,040 pts · 31 GWs

TC1
17

BB1
18

WC1
19

WC2
22

BB2
24

TC2
26

Hits: 0 pts

Transfers: 30

Bench waste: 245 pts (best in club)

Best GW: GW17 — 117 pts (TC) — best GW in club

H2 chips: FH1 FH2

✓ TC on GW17 — 117 pts — Best single GW in the entire club. TC deployed on what appears to be the highest-scoring captain of the season. Held TC when others had already played it.

✓ Fastest OR climb in club — OR 5,042 (GW16) → top-3 globally by GW26. A 9-GW window of 6 chip plays transformed the season.

✓ Best bench calibration — 245 pts bench waste (lowest in club). Best lineup ordering and player prioritisation decisions.

✗ Ranked outside top 500k for 16 GWs — The contrarian approach created 16 GWs of underperformance before the explosion. This requires psychological resilience most managers don't have.

Headline takeaway for 2026/27: Holding chips requires full conviction — half-measures don't work. If committing to the contrarian approach, have the trigger conditions written down before the season (e.g. "I will use TC only if the captain scores 20+ in the week I play it"). Crème's success was not luck — it was waiting for the right moment and having the confidence not to panic-use chips when others were playing theirs.

mirinda OR #4 — Global top 4

Decisive Frontrunner · 2,037 pts · 31 GWs

WC1
4

TC1
6

BB1
9

FH1
13

Hits: 4 pts (1 occasion)

Transfers: 30

Bench waste: 261 pts

Best GW: GW4 — 98 pts

H2 chips: WC2 TC2 BB2 FH2

✓ 98 pts in GW4 — Best early GW in club. Was top-120k by GW4 — a lead that was maintained all season.

✓ Structured H1 chip deployment — WC1(4), TC1(6), BB1(9), FH1(13). All 4 H1 chips used in the first 13 GWs. Identical structure to Ibsen.

✓ Consistent 60–70 pt floor — No catastrophic blank GWs. The goal of FPL is not ceiling points — it is avoiding the floor collapses that other managers suffer.

Headline takeaway for 2026/27: The mirinda structure (WC1 → TC1 → BB1 → FH1, all by GW13) is the most replicable top-4 blueprint. It does not require contrarian timing or pre-season research into GW1. It requires discipline: use WC1 early to fix the squad, play TC on the consensus week (GW6), BB immediately after the WC while the squad is loaded, FH for the first blank. Follow the recipe.

Bruno 2.0 #9,032

Active Hit-Taker · 1,910 pts · 31 GWs

WC1
3

TC1
6

FH1
12

BB1
18

TC2
26

Hits: 20 pts

Transfers: 37

Bench waste: 332 pts

Best GW: GW29 — 100 pts

H2 chips: WC2 BB2 FH2

✓ TC on GW6 — Correctly identified the consensus captain week. Executed the same play as the top 4.

✓ Peak GW29 (100 pts) — Demonstrates elite-level decision making when the strategy was disciplined. The ceiling exists.

✗ FH on GW12 — not a blank GW — FH is a blank GW chip. Using it on a regular GW discards its primary advantage. Net result: a good week with 15 players you'll never use again.

✗ BB on GW18 — not a peak squad moment — BB should follow a Wildcard when the squad is at full load. GW18 did not follow a WC. The squad was not maximally loaded.

✗ 20 pts in hits — Equivalent to surrendering one full GW of points to the competition. Each hit felt justified in the moment — the target player likely underperformed while the outgoing player hauled.

Headline takeaway for 2026/27: For each chip, write the trigger condition before the season starts. FH trigger: "I will play FH only if 4+ top teams blank in the same GW." BB trigger: "I will play BB only in the GW immediately after using my Wildcard." If the week doesn't match the trigger, do not play the chip. Reactive chip usage is the largest controllable lever for improvement.

WatchHowittsDone #33,068

Reactive Churner · 1,880 pts · 31 GWs

WC1
4

TC1
6

FH1
13

BB1
18

WC2
22

Hits: 28 pts (highest in top 6)

Transfers: 38 (highest in top 6)

Squad value: £104.9m (lowest of top 6)

Best GW: GW8 — 103 pts

H2 chips: TC2 BB2 FH2

✓ TC on GW6 — The one chip that matched the template.

✓ Strong individual GWs — 103 pts GW8, multiple 80+ returns. Player reads are correct — it's the holding, not the identifying, that needs fixing.

✗ Highest transfer count + lowest squad value = churn without compounding — 38 transfers produced a squad worth £104.9m. Ibsen made 31 transfers and built a squad worth £108.6m. More activity produced worse assets.

✗ WC2 on GW22 with no structural bounce — A wildcard should produce a step-change in OR. GW22 WC did not. The reset was reactive rather than planned around a specific fixture run.

✗ Never broke the top-10k threshold — OR peaked at 20,902. Every hit and reactive transfer maintained a ceiling the strategy could never break through.

Headline takeaway for 2026/27: Before any transfer, ask: "Is this player strictly better than my current player in the next 4 GWs?" If the answer is "maybe" or "yes for one week," hold. The data shows that the managers who held assets longer built more squad value, scored more points, and took fewer hits. The instinct to act is almost always wrong in FPL.

SlowBuild #1,532,405 Missed GW1

Late Starter · 1,718 pts · 30 GWs played

WC1
4

TC1
6

BB1
10

FH1
16

WC2
24

TC2
26

FH2
31

Hits: 32 pts

Transfers: 37

GW1 pts: 0 (did not register)

Best GW: GW24 — 87 pts

H2 chips: BB2 only

✓ FH2 on BGW31 — Arsenal, City, Crystal Palace, Wolves all blank. Playing FH to field a full 15-player squad on a blank GW is textbook chip usage. Best strategic play from this manager all season.

✓ Consistent OR climb — From #10M+ to #1.53M. Never stopped improving despite the structural handicap.

✗ Missed GW1 — the season's original sin — Trundlers scored 115 pts on GW1 with BB. SlowBuild scored 0. That gap compounds every single GW. By GW31, the deficit has partially closed but the OR trajectory started 10M+ below where it should have been.

✗ 32 pts in hits — On top of the GW1 handicap, avoidable hit costs slowed the OR climb further.

Headline takeaway for 2026/27: GW1 registration is non-negotiable. Set an alarm 3 days before the deadline. The FPL season starts before it starts — pre-season squad building in July/August determines GW1 performance. Consider planning a GW1 BB if the captain candidate is identified early enough to justify it.

Yamal 1# #7,463,122

Persistent Improver · 1,473 pts · 30 GWs played

FH1
11

TC1
13

WC1
14

BB1
18

FH2
31

Hits: 72 pts (18 extra transfers)

Transfers: 47

Bench waste: 184 pts (best in club)

Best GW: GW17 — 86 pts

Worst GW: GW13 — 23 pts (TC week)

✓ Best lineup ordering in club — 184 pts bench waste, lowest of any manager. This shows excellent awareness of which players are likely to score — the auto-substitution order is consistently right.

✓ Persistent improvement — Best current OR is the latest OR. Still moving in the right direction every phase.

✓ WC2+TC2+BB2 available for run-in — 3 H2 chips remaining gives genuine run-in ceiling. If the hit habit stops now, a meaningful OR climb in GW32–38 is achievable.

✗ TC on GW13 — worst GW of the season (23 pts) — The most costly chip misfire in the club. TC deployed on the lowest-scoring week of the entire season. The loss vs optimal TC timing: approximately 40–60 pts vs GW6 TC. The rule: never play TC just because it's been held for a while.

✗ 72 pts in hits — 18 extra transfers across 30 GWs. The positive trend (24 pts hits in H2 vs 48 in H1) shows the habit is improving but needs to reach zero.

Headline takeaway for 2026/27: Two rules to apply from day 1: (1) TC trigger condition — "I will play TC only on a GW where the expected captain return is ≥ 15 pts, and only on one of GW4–10." Write it down. (2) Hit budget — set a hard limit of 8 pts (two hits) for the entire season before it begins. Once the budget is spent, zero hits. The lineup ordering skill is already top-class — apply the same discipline to transfer decisions.

Mbappe Salah #12,453,776 — Bottom 1%

Unconstrained Collector · 738 pts net · 30 GWs played

BB1
2

TC1
10

FH1
11

WC1
12

WC2
23

TC2
26

FH2
31

Raw GW returns: 1,658 pts

Hit cost: 920 pts

Net total: 738 pts

Avg extra transfers/GW: 8.4

Squad value: £107.6m (2nd highest)

✓ Elite player identification — £107.6m squad value (2nd highest in club), 1,658 raw pts before penalties. The player reads are genuinely exceptional.

✓ Best GW: 89 pts (GW14) — When the strategy lands, it scores well.

✗ 920 pts surrendered to hits — the defining fact of the season — In 5 separate GWs, hit costs exceeded GW returns: total points decreased week-on-week. 8.4 extra transfers per GW on average. No other FPL strategy in history produces this profile.

✗ Chips used in a dense H1 cluster — BB1(2), TC1(10), FH1(11), WC1(12) — four chips in 11 GWs with no H2 planning. The chip stack was exhausted before the season's halfway point.

Headline takeaway for 2026/27: This manager's player selection ability is in the club's top tier — which makes the hit habit uniquely costly. The fix is a pre-season contract: write "maximum 2 hits (8 pts) for the entire 2026/27 season" and share it with someone in the club who will enforce it. The question the data asks is: if you held every player you correctly identified for just 2 more GWs instead of churning, what would the OR be? The squad value says top-500k. The strategy produces bottom-1%. The gap is entirely the transfer cost.

3. 2026/27 Pre-Season Checklist

Before the Season Opens

Register squad and save team before GW1 deadline — no exceptions
Research GW1 captain candidate (who is playing at home, who is in form in pre-season?)
Decide BB1 trigger: if GW1 captain is compelling, consider GW1 BB
Write chip trigger conditions for all 8 chips and save them
Set a hit budget: maximum 8 pts (2 hits) for the whole season
Identify the GW6 captain candidate before GW1 — TC6 is the consensus play
Plan WC1 timing: deploy before GW10 if the squad has structural problems
Understand which GWs are likely blanks (Carabao Cup final, FA Cup semi-finals)
Know the H1/H2 chip split: H1 chips are GW1–19, H2 chips reset at GW20

In-Season Rules

Before any transfer: "Is this player strictly better for the next 4 GWs?" If unsure, hold
Before any hit: "Does the upside exceed 8 pts above the alternative?" If not, hold
Check bench ordering every single GW — 184 pts vs 380 pts bench waste is all lineup order
FH only on a confirmed blank GW (4+ top teams missing fixtures)
BB only immediately after a Wildcard rebuild, while the squad is maximally loaded
TC: use between GW4–10, only when the captain candidate is unambiguous
WC2: plan the target fixture run before playing it — it must produce a structural bounce
Track hits taken vs budget remaining — stop when budget is exhausted
After GW19: inventory all H2 chips (WC2, TC2, BB2, FH2) and plan deployment

4. Chip Timing Verdict — All 9 Managers

Manager	BB1	TC1	FH1	WC1	H1 Verdict
Ibsen	GW10 ✓	GW6 ✓	GW13 ✓	GW2 ✓	Optimal — all 4 H1 chips by GW13
Trundlers	GW1 ★	GW6 ✓	GW19 ✓	GW16 ⚡	Excellent — GW1 BB is the best chip play in club history
Crème	GW18 BB1+BB2	GW17 ★ 117pts	—	GW19 late	Contrarian — high risk, paid off with conviction
mirinda	GW9 ✓	GW6 ✓	GW13 ✓	GW4 ✓	Optimal — replicable template
Bruno	GW18 ✗ not peak	GW6 ✓	GW12 ✗ not blank	GW3 ✓	Mixed — TC correct, FH and BB mistimed
Howitts	GW18 ✗ not peak	GW6 ✓	GW13 ~	GW4 ✓	Mixed — BB mistimed, WC2 didn't bounce
SlowBuild	GW10 ✓	GW6 ✓	GW16 ✓	GW4 ✓	Good chip timing — structural disadvantage was GW1 miss, not chips
Yamal 1#	GW18 late	GW13 ✗ 23pts worst GW	GW11 early	GW14 reactive	Poor — TC misfire is season's biggest chip error
Mbappe Salah	GW2 early	GW10 late	GW11	GW12	Dense cluster — BB/TC/FH/WC1 in 11 GWs, no H2 planning

5. The Numbers That Explain Everything

Top 4 average

Total pts: 2,047
Hit cost: 1 pt
Transfers: 30
Squad value: £107.9m
Bench waste: 296 pts
TC week: GW6 (all 4)
BB timing: GW1–10

Bruno + Howitts average

Total pts: 1,895
Hit cost: 24 pts
Transfers: 37.5
Squad value: £104.9m
Bench waste: 290 pts
TC week: GW6 ✓ (both)
BB timing: GW18 (both)

Lower 3 average

Total pts: 1,310
Hit cost: 341 pts avg
Transfers: 111 avg
Squad value: £104.7m
Bench waste: 225 pts
GW1 pts: 0 (all missed GW1)

The gap in one sentence: The top 4 outscored Bruno and Howitts by an average of 152 pts — that gap is entirely explained by 0 hits vs 24 hits and better chip timing. It is not explained by better player reads (squad values are close) or more activity (transfers are similar). The OR spread from #1 to #12.5M in this club is almost entirely the product of transfer discipline and chip deployment. Player selection is not the primary differentiator — constraint and patience are.

FPL 2025/26 Season · Club of 9 · Lessons Learned — carry forward to 2026/27 · Data: API history captures · Back to Hub